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ENSEMBLES: A new multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions - Skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs

TitoloENSEMBLES: A new multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions - Skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs
Tipo di pubblicazioneArticolo su Rivista peer-reviewed
Anno di Pubblicazione2009
AutoriWeisheimer, A., Doblas-Reyes F.J., Palmer T.N., Alessandri Andrea, Arribas A., Déqué M., Keenlyside N., MacVean M., Navarra A., and Rogel P.
RivistaGeophysical Research Letters
Volume36
ISSN00948276
Parole chiaveAnnual prediction, atmosphere-ocean coupling, climate prediction, data set, Data sets, Demeter, ensemble forecasting, Ensemble prediction, Errors, hindcasting, Hindcasts, Improved models, International community, Multi-model, Multi-model ensemble, Ocean circulation models, Oceanography, Pacific Ocean, Pacific Ocean (Tropical), Probabilistic Skill, RMS errors, Satellite data, sea surface temperature, Simulators, Systematic errors, Weather forecasting
Abstract

A new 46-year hindcast dataset for seasonal-to-annual ensemble predictions has been created using a multi-model ensemble of 5 state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean circulation models. The multi-model outperforms any of the single-models in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs because of reduced RMS errors and enhanced ensemble dispersion at all lead-times. Systematic errors are considerably reduced over the previous generation (DEMETER). Probabilistic skill scores show higher skill for the new multi-model ensemble than for DEMETER in the 4-6 month forecast range. However, substantially improved models would be required to achieve strongly statistical significant skill increases. The combination of ENSEMBLES and DEMETER into a grand multi-model ensemble does not improve the forecast skill further. Annual-range hindcasts show anomaly correlation skill of ∼0.5 up to 14 months ahead. A wide range of output from the multi-model simulations is becoming publicly available and the international community is invited to explore the full scientific potential of these data. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

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cited By 143

URLhttps://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-72049088496&doi=10.1029%2f2009GL040896&partnerID=40&md5=6a4f99a80a53026d241adb07b9263786
DOI10.1029/2009GL040896
Citation KeyWeisheimer2009